Eminence Basketball: Why Raw is the Play (and What to Avoid)

We’ve been watching the basketball card market closely, and it feels stable, maybe even leaning into quality, which we like to see. Sales on eBay for single sports cards hit $1.36 billion in the first half of 2026, which is a pretty serious jump, up 40% from the six months before. That's the first time we've crossed a billion in a half-year, and it tells us there's real money in play. But where's the smart money going, really?

Panini Eminence: A Raw Opportunity

Right now, we're seeing some wild gaps in Panini Eminence Basketball. We've said before that Panini Eminence consistently delivers a premium feel, setting the bar for what a chase card should be in basketball. That hasn't changed. What's changing is the spread between raw and graded versions of some serious cards. Take the Derrick Rose [Emerald] #26 Panini Eminence Optimum Diamond Autograph. A raw copy sold for $976.94, but a PSA 10? That’s pushing nearly $4.8 million. That’s not a typo. It’s a massive gulf. The Jalen Brunson [Emerald] #4 from Panini Eminence Gilded Graphs shows a similar story, with raw at $922.50 and a PSA 10 at over $4.6 million.

Live Market Data Full Details →

90-day price trend (raw)

Raw$976.94+0.0% 7d

PSA 9$715782.04

4 recent sales tracked

+1.7% over 30 days

This isn't just about Rose or Brunson; it’s a pattern across the high-end Eminence sets. The Trae Young [Emerald] #24 Optimum Diamond Autograph, raw at $848.50, has a PSA 10 comp north of $4.2 million. Even the Paolo Banchero #20 Panini Eminence Patch Autographs, raw at $712.50, hits over $3.5 million for a PSA 10. These aren't just big numbers; they suggest a fundamental mispricing in the raw market for these specific cards. With PSA Regular service turnaround times now doubling to 70-80 business days and BGS pausing its Base and Standard grading tiers, the cost and wait for grading are up. We think collectors are valuing immediacy over future grade potential, and that's creating an opening.

What's Overheated: Modern Low-End Graded

We've been talking about the 'Junk Wax 2.0' reality for mid-tier modern cards, and it's still playing out. While high-end modern cards are putting up serious numbers, the lower-end graded market feels overextended. Take that 2023 Panini Prizm Blue Sparkle Luka Doncic /144 #110 PSA 10 that sold for $125.00 yesterday. It's a nice card, sure, but in the grand scheme of the market's current stability, that kind of price for a modern base parallel PSA 10 feels like it’s at the top of its range. We’re seeing a flight to quality, and that means iconic, established players or truly rare, unique modern pieces, not just any PSA 10 from a recent release.

The truth is, rookie card demand has cooled for 2022-2024 prospects, with raw copies usually hitting $20-$50. If you’re paying $125 for a PSA 10 of a parallel of a player who isn't a top-tier prospect, you’re probably getting in too high. This segment is vulnerable.

Portfolio Strategy: What to Buy Now

For different budgets, we see clear paths.

Under $500 Budget:

Focus on raw Panini Eminence cards that show big PSA 10 spreads, even if they aren't the top names. A Derrick Rose [Emerald] #1 Panini Eminence Curtain Call Diamond Signature raw card at $710.00 is a tough buy here, but look for lower-tier Eminence raw cards showing similar patterns. Or, consider vintage raw cards; we've seen a raw 1970-71 Topps Pete Maravich #123 RC sell for $750.00 recently, which shows foundational strength. That Maravich is a solid long-term hold in a market that's leaning into vintage.

$5,000 Budget:

This is where those Panini Eminence raw cards become a serious play. A Derrick Rose [Emerald] #26 Optimum Diamond Autograph for under $1000 raw, knowing a PSA 10 is over $4.7 million? That's a bet on grading. A Jalen Brunson [Emerald] #4 from Eminence Gilded Graphs, raw for $922.50, is another strong target. You’re buying into the grade upside, which is substantial. We think the grading backlog easing to 2-3 months makes this even more attractive, if you're patient.

$50,000+ Budget:

Go for the heavy hitters. The 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle (SGC 9.5) hitting $12.6 million shows the ceiling for iconic vintage. We've seen over 25 public sales of sports cards exceeding $1 million so far this year, indicating a real adoption as an alternative investment. A PSA 10 1986 Fleer #57 Michael Jordan rookie card, currently in the $500,000-$700,000 range, is an anchor for any high-end portfolio. Or, if you're feeling a bit more speculative but still want blue chip, a 2003 Topps Chrome LeBron James Gold Refractor PSA 10 sold for $1.11 million in January. These are generational pieces.

Top Card Picks for the Next 6-12 Months

1. Derrick Rose [Emerald] #26 Panini Eminence Optimum Diamond Autograph (Raw): This is our top pick. The raw price of $976.94 against a PSA 10 of $4,795,809.42 is just too big to ignore. Grade it and hold.
2. Jalen Brunson [Emerald] #4 Panini Eminence Gilded Graphs (Raw): Similar to Rose, the raw at $922.50 versus a PSA 10 at $4,603,966.26 suggests massive upside if you can get the grade.
3. Ty Cobb [Portrait-Red] T206 Piedmont 350 (Raw): This card, raw at $5,032.50, is a foundational piece in the vintage market. We've been saying smart money is moving into vintage, and Cobb is a prime example of that flight to quality. It's not a quick flip, but a long-term anchor.
4. Any Raw Panini Eminence Autograph or Patch Card with a Significant PSA 10 Premium: We think the wider Eminence raw market is undervalued given the high-end appeal and grade premiums. Look for cards like the Trae Young #1 Panini Eminence Jumbo Patch Autograph (raw at $795.35) or the Derrick Rose [Autograph] #9 Panini Eminence (raw at $900.00). The general push for serious ink and patches, as we've seen with formats like 2025-26 Panini Noir, reinforces this.

Market Shifts Next Quarter

We’re going to see Fanatics take over major sports card licensing for MLB, NFL, and NBA in 2026. This isn't just a small change; it changes everything for the football card market, as we've noted when Topps got back into football. Expect new product lines and designs, which could shake things up. The "stitched and structured layering" design trend, already visible in 2026 Topps flagship, hints at a direction for physical world elements influencing card design. This could breathe new life into some sets.

Also, we’re keeping a close eye on the World Cup effect. We've been predicting that the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America will be the biggest catalyst for soccer card values we've seen, and early signs of market acceleration are already evident. It’s not just a prediction anymore; it’s starting to play out.

Long-Term Holds vs. Toast

Vintage cards are solid long-term holds. The 1950s Baseball Cards are leading the charge in the current vintage market upswing, and we've seen foundational strength in key vintage rookie cards. We still believe there's a clear 'flight to quality' in the market, with high-end vintage being the preferred destination. Michael Jordan continues to anchor the basketball card market, representing a flight to quality.

As for what's toast, we're sticking with the mid-tier modern cards. The market is divided, with a clear bifurcation between struggling mid-tier modern cards and resilient premium/vintage segments. Don't chase the hype on cards that aren't truly iconic or incredibly rare. Buy the Eminence raw, hold the vintage, and watch the shifts.