The market just saw a raw 1970-71 Topps Pete Maravich #123 RC sell for $750.00 today, an interesting marker in a hobby that feels, to us, pretty divided right now. It's not a record-breaker by any stretch, but it shows some foundational strength in key vintage rookie cards. We're seeing a clear bifurcation, I guess you could call it, between struggling mid-tier modern cards and some serious resilience in the premium and vintage segments.
The Junk Wax 2.0 Reality
We've talked about the "Junk Wax 2.0" problem for a while now, and honestly, it's getting worse. The sheer volume of new product is staggering, especially in the NBA. We're tracking over 429 million NBA cards released in the most recent season, which means something like 1.26 million copies of every base card in a flagship set. That's just a crazy number. What this means for most modern base and mid-tier cards is a sustained slump, and it's probably going to continue. There's just too much out there, and that supply is keeping prices flat, if not actively pushing them down. Don't expect a sudden rebound for most common modern cards.
On the other hand, the real money, the smart money, is still chasing scarcity and quality. That's why we're seeing sales like a 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson #312, even raw, move for nearly $6,000, while a PSA 10 of the same card pushes $1.4 million. It’s the difference between accidental scarcity from decades ago and today's manufactured scarcity, where even "limited" runs still feel massive sometimes. We're still very bullish on low-population numbered parallels, especially those /99 or less, and certainly high-grade vintage cards of the GOATs. Think a PSA 10 1979 O-Pee-Chee Wayne Gretzky #18, still topping $2 million, or a PSA 10 T206 Piedmont Ty Cobb, pulling in over $3.3 million. Those aren't just cards; they're tangible assets, and that's the angle more serious investors are taking.
![Ty Cobb [Portrait-Red]](/data/images/baseball/9122122.jpg)
Grading: The Widening Gap
Grading has never been more critical, but we've got to be smart about it. PSA and Beckett still set the standard, no doubt, but the gap between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10 has stretched out in a big way. Take the 1993 Topps Draft Pick Derek Jeter prospect card: a PSA 9 is around $30, but a PSA 10 hits $493. That's a massive premium for just one point. Or Mike Trout's 2011 Topps Update Rookie, where a PSA 9 was $385 on March 30, 2026, but a PSA 10 cleared $1,067. We're even seeing BGS pause its Base and Standard grading tiers, and PSA Regular service times have doubled to 70-80 business days. It tells us that high grades are getting harder to hit, and the market is rewarding perfection more than ever. If you've got a shot at a 10 on a key card, it's probably worth the wait and the cost. Otherwise, be careful about grading anything that isn't a likely 9 or 10 on a desirable card.
Next-Gen Talents and Future Catalysts
For modern, it's really all about generational talents. We're watching Cooper Flagg of the Dallas Mavericks closely; his rookie cards are definitely worth a look for next-gen hoops investments. We also said way back in August of last year that the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America would be the biggest catalyst for soccer card values we've seen, and we're starting to see that play out. Early signs of market acceleration are already here, even in late August, and we think it's only going to get bigger as the event approaches. Keep an eye on key international rookies and established stars with strong World Cup histories. That market's projected to hit nearly $28.5 billion by 2033, and it's not a bad place to be.
What to Do Now
So, what's the move? We're still saying, for the most part, lean into quality. For serious collectors and investors, that means focusing on low-population numbered parallels, high-grade vintage cards of the true legends, and maybe looking at those second-year players who are putting up big numbers. The vintage baseball market, even at more accessible price points, is holding steady, a 1953 Topps Roy Campanella #27 in PSA 2.5 went for $125.00 today. Don't chase the high-volume, mid-tier modern cards right now; they're likely to stay stagnant or decline. Consider buying raw if you're confident in a PSA 9 or 10 grade, but otherwise, buy the slab.