That 1990 Fleer Basketball Michael Jordan #26 in a PSA 10 just sold for $880 yesterday. It's not a rookie card, obviously, but it's another data point showing the market for foundational players still has legs, and maybe even some upward momentum. We've seen this kind of steady demand for Jordan cards all year, and it feels like it isn't slowing down.
What's Overheated: Modern NBA Base Cards
We're seeing a clear bifurcation in the market, with premium segments doing well, but a lot of modern stuff is struggling. Over 429 million NBA cards were produced in the most recent season. That's a huge number. This kind of output pushes base and mid-tier modern cards into a pretty risky spot, creating what feels like a "Junk Wax 2.0" scenario. We think these are vulnerable to a correction. If you're holding a lot of ungraded, common modern base cards, especially anything outside of a top-tier rookie or a low-pop parallel, it's probably time to look at consolidating or moving those out. They just don't have the scarcity to hold long-term value against that kind of print run.
Look at the prices on Topps NBA Chrome hobby boxes, nearly double most other Topps Chrome boxes at $379. Demand for sealed product in some lines is high, sure, but that doesn't automatically translate to strong resale for every single card inside. We'd be wary of chasing every new release in volume, particularly when the production numbers are this high across the board. The market is maturing, and collectors are getting more educated about rarity and long-term value. Generic modern base cards are just not hitting those marks.
Where the Smart Money is Moving: Vintage and Ultra High-End NBA
The ultra-high-end market, however, is different entirely. We're talking about that Jordan-Kobe Dual Logoman 1/1 selling for $12.93 million last year, or the Jordan-LeBron Dual Logoman for $10 million. Even a Babe Ruth Goudey card hitting $4.03 million. These aren't just high sales; they're benchmarks, showing that serious money is still very much in the hobby, treating these cards like blue-chip assets. This reinforces what we've been saying about 1950s baseball cards, quiet, enduring strength, appealing to 'smart money'.
We've been bullish on 1950s baseball cards for a while, and the market confirms it. The demand for foundational vintage pieces like Babe Ruth Goudey cards, even at the multi-million dollar level, suggests a deep appreciation for rarity and history. This segment, for us, is a solid long-term hold, and probably a great place to allocate funds if you're looking for stability. It's less about speculative jumps and more about appreciating assets.
Our Top Card Picks for the Next 6-12 Months
- Babe Ruth Goudey cards, specifically #53, #144, or #149 (Raw to mid-grade): A Babe Ruth Goudey card just fetched $4.03 million. That's a huge sale, and while most of us aren't playing in that league, even raw versions of cards like the Babe Ruth #149 at $18,300, #144 at $15,057, or #53 at $7,700 are strong plays. These prices show enduring demand, and we think they'll continue to see quiet appreciation. This is a foundational asset for a reason.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Panini Eminence Patch Autographs and Thrilliant Signatures (Raw): SGA is putting up huge numbers. His raw Panini Eminence Patch Autographs #6 is at $3,004, and his Thrilliant Signature #21 is at $1,725. We think these raw cards are undervalued given his performance and the overall strength of high-end basketball autographs. His PSA 10 comps, like the $15 million+ on the patch auto, show what happens when the grade hits. Getting in on raw high-end for a player like this feels like a smart move.
- Jac Caglianone 2026 Topps Tribute League Inauguration Autographs Gold #LIA-JC (Raw): This kid just opened August on a 13-game hitting streak, batting.431 with 5 HR. That's serious production. His 2026 Topps Tribute League Inauguration Autographs Gold is a notable card. It's an early call, but identifying breakout players before mainstream collectors catch on is the real trick. We see this as a solid speculative play under $500, especially raw, for potential short-term gains if his performance continues.
- Cole Palmer 2021-22 Topps UEFA Champions League or Donruss Rookies (PSA 9 or Raw): Palmer is an emerging star for England. With the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America coming up, we expect soccer cards to stay hot. A PSA 9 2024 Topps Chrome Sapphire Padparadscha Auto 1/1 just sold for $4,050. Getting in on his earlier rookie cards in good condition, even raw or a PSA 9, could be a strong move before the World Cup hype fully kicks in. This is a category that feels electric right now due to young talent.
Portfolio Strategy
For collectors with $500 to spend, we recommend focusing on specific player-driven opportunities that haven't fully exploded. Look for a raw Jac Caglianone 2026 Topps Tribute League Inauguration Autographs Gold #LIA-JC. It's a high-upside play on a currently hot player. Or, consider lower-grade Michael Jordan non-rookies; a PSA 7 1995 Skybox Premium #L1 sold for $755, showing demand even at that level. You might find something similar in a slightly lower grade for under $500.
If you have $5,000 to work with, we'd suggest a mix. Grab a raw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Panini Eminence Thrilliant Signature #21 for its growth potential. Then, allocate some funds towards a raw or low-grade Babe Ruth Goudey card, like the #53, to add some foundational vintage stability. Diversify a bit, but lean into the high-end raw plays with clear upside.
For those with $50,000 or more, the strategy shifts to high-end, low-pop items. We're talking PSA 10s of key 90s rookies like Kevin Garnett, or the ultra-high-end Panini Eminence basketball cards. A raw Luka Doncic Panini Eminence Special Patch Autograph #9 at $5,564, or an Anthony Edwards #5 at $6,829, both have PSA 10 comps well into the millions. This is where you target those cards with astronomical PSA 10 premiums, knowing you're banking on either getting a top grade or holding a truly scarce, high-demand piece. Adding a higher-grade Babe Ruth Goudey would also be a very strong move for long-term appreciation.
What's Changing Next Quarter
The biggest shift we're seeing is the return of fully licensed NBA cards to Topps. That's a monumental change, ending Panini's run. We expect Topps Basketball to generate massive hype, especially with products like 2025-26 Topps Chrome Update Basketball already seeing Cooper Flagg's Debut Patch Autograph redemptions getting pulled. This transition will redefine the basketball card market, creating new chase cards and potentially new investment opportunities as the hobby adjusts.
Also, the final Panini NFL releases (Prizm, Phoenix, Absolute, Optic) are still coming out before Fanatics takes over. This might be the last chance to grab some Panini NFL staples, and while there's a risk of oversupply, some collectors might want to complete sets or grab key rookie parallels before the brand disappears from football. We think the overall market value will continue its stable growth, heading towards that projected doubling by 2034. It's a mature market now, not a wild frenzy, but definitely not cooling off.
Buy the dip on high-end raw modern basketball. Buy into vintage baseball as a long-term hold. Wait on generic modern base cards.